Supposing you bet high on the outcomes of a football match.
How can you be 100% certain of the outcome and win on every occasion?
This is not a puzzle, a tricky question or a mathematical question.
The answer is simple if you think as follows:
If you pay off all the players of Club A the probability of knowing the outcome is 50%
If you pay off all the players of Club B the probability of knowing the outcome is 50%
If you pay off all the players of Club A and B the probability is still not 100% because there is still an unknown factor…the referees.
If you pay off all the players of Club A and B AND the referees then your probability of knowing the outcome is now 100%
It is simple isn’t it?
Apply now this principle on any historical or geopolitical event.